Collect Experiences. Not Things. :')

September 30, 2012

Aleppo, Syria





Aleppo, Syria a Unesco World Heritage Site and one of my top 10 cities in the world has been ravish by the civil war. The souk located near the center of the old city was destroyed by fire.  
"For many residents, the old city, with the souk at its center, is the soul of Aleppo, one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited cities and Syria’s largest. Aleppo has been staggering for months under a bloody battle that has reduced some residential areas to rubble, and with no deaths immediately reported from the blaze, the damage to the souk pales compared with the recent human toll."
Mezza
Pipe Shop
Up-Scale Hotel
Spice Shop

September 29, 2012

"47%" Comment : End of Romney's Presidency Bid?

Presidential Debates

During the next three weeks, the debates are Romney's last chance to change voter opinions. Obama already has a core number of electoral votes, plus many major swing states in his favor, most notably Ohio, Virginia and Florida.  Even if things changed between now and election day, and Obama lost Florida, where he currently has a 65% chance of winning, all he needs is one smaller swing state like Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or Colorado to win.  And he already has at least a 65% chance or higher of winning these states. The probabilities are based on economic data and polling data. At this point, something significantly damaging would have to occur for Obama not to win in November, which is possible, but not probable.

Obama excels in national security (especially, after Bin-Laden's death), foreign relations and domestic policy. He's a bit weakness on the economy. The Obama team knows this, and knew this would be a problem from day one.  Remember during Obama's inaugural address, he set the stage of the economy and blamed it on W Bush.  Now four years later, Obama is basically portraying Romney's policies as W Bush policies II.  It seems to be working, unless during the debates Romney can come up with some new are ideas as to how his economic policies differ from Bush it will be difficult for him to win in November.


Best Speech of DNC: Bill Clinton's



Four years ago, Obama was Bill Clinton nemesis. He adeptly "stole" the Democratic Nomination from Hillary. Bill and his Democratic crones didn't see Barack as a serious threat, and felt that the nomination was rightful Hillary's. If Hillary did get the nomination, she would have been President today, no doubt about it.

Let me say, I'm no Bill Clinton Stan. When he was President, I was in grad school and wasn't really focused on politics.  It wasn't until 2003, after W. Bush lied about the WMD and declared war on Iraq, that I became infatuated with politics once again.  But even with that said, Clinton's speech at the DNC was the highlight of the convention. It surpassed even Obama's speech. And most Democrats are aware of the animosities Bill held against Barack at one time, so the current unyielding support for Barack by Bill is new founded.

Bill Clinton's support for Barack isn't entirely selfless either. If Obama wins in 2012, then in four years the economy should be peaking, which makes a great transition of the Presidency over to Hillary, similar to Reagan/Bush in 1988.

September 22, 2012

"First Steps Pistol Orientation"

Attended a pistol orientation class first, then shot a semi-automatic and revolver. It was my first time shooting a handgun and totally chill.  A little nervous at first (hand was shaking), but after a few rounds, I became much more comfortable. The shooting range looked like a scene out of "Pulp Fiction", I must admit. This added to my nervousness. Gonna take the next level class maybe next month. It entails two hours of shooting with and instructor offering critique.

The Book of "Moron"

Excellent! And while the musical was absolutely  hilarious - a lot of spontaneous, rude, obnoxious "South Park" humor in it - the funniest part was watching the old, traditional theater people leaving the theatre.  Most of the them "seemed" to like it, but were a bit bewildered. The musical subtly points out the hypocrisies of religion, and especially the Moron religion.

I thought "Spring Awaking" was radical for a Broadway musical, albeit a bit old school. "The Book of Mormon" is definitely new school. If more broadway musicals were like this, and less like Disney or traditional musicals, I'd attend more shows.

September 10, 2012

Election Fever

Definitely don't have the time to reflect on this election like I did four years ago. But I'm still closely following it. What else do I got to do? What films?

Based on the economy, this election is Romney's election to lose, and it appears he's doing a good job at it.  Most of the country seems to have make up it's mind. The populous vote seems to about 50-46 Obama/ 48-44 Romney based on various national polls.

However, the electoral college is what wins the election, not the popular vote. Currently, Obama is ahead. At this point, he only has to win one large swing state, like FL, VA, or OH and one or two smaller swing state, like NH, CO, NV, IA or WI.  Testing various scenarios, using the electoral map, indicates he has a lot more paths to winning, than Romney.

Obama got a small boost in the polls from Democratic National Convention, but in the next two months he'll receive significant downward pressure in the polls from Romney's war chest and upcoming negative advertising. Romney has a mega cashbox to spend that he's received from billionaires and super pacs.

Obama's camp will be promoting his saving of the car industry and killing of Bin Laden, prominently. Both are hot issues in swing states working Obama's favor. Similarly, he has become the champion of the middle class, coming from modest means, choosing a life of helping people vs. Romney who champions the wealthy, comes from a wealthy family, and choose a life of making cash.

Romney's camp will be focuses on policies to reduce the deficit, taxes, regulation and high unemployment rate.  On  social issues, I believe Romney's personal beliefs aren't that far from Obama, but he has to tow the party line. His parties and now his official anti-abortion and anti-same sex marriage policy positions will hurt him with women and more progressive independents.

What's also going to hurt Romney's plan to reducing taxes and regulation is that the plan brings to mind W. Bush's policies of lower taxes and deregulation.  Bush tax cuts and two wars contributed significantly to the national debt. The non-regulation of the banking sector caused the current economic turndown.  Romney's camp did not invite W. Bush and Cheney to the Republican Convention, a huge red flag. 

On the other hand, Clinton was front and center at the DNC.  Where he clearly linked the W. Bush policies to our current economic problems: "It's simple arithmetic. A country can't reduce taxes and increase spending like under W. Bush and expect the deficit to decrease. It just doesn't work that way." Clinton also highlighted economic prosperity during his term.

Nevertheless, there is still 57 days to the election and two more unemployment reports.  My guess is unemployment will decrease each report: 1) due to the Fed's upcoming QE3 announcement on September 13th causing a surge in equity markets; and 2) the turnaround in the housing market. With interest rates at historical lows and housing pricing back on the rise, the housing sector will be hiring again.

And even if the unemployment reports come in weak, perhaps not go down, but increase, there are still three debates. Clearly Obama is the better orator. Romney comes off as very awkward. Romney will want to stay focused on jobs and only jobs, but he will be forced to discuss foreign relations, military and human rights.  None of these are his strong suit.


September 04, 2012

End-of-term report: Barack Obama’s economic record

The president’s record is better than the woes of America’s economy suggests

Again a fairly conservative (extremely market oriented) magazine making a case that the economy isn't all Obama's fault and mostly Bush's doing. Obama's job has been to get it growing again, creating jobs.

NOT since 1933 had an American president taken the oath of office in an economic climate as grim as it was when Barack Obama put his left hand on the Bible in January 2009. The banking system was near collapse, two big car manufacturers were sliding towards bankruptcy; and employment, the housing market and output were spiralling down. 

Hemmed in by political constraints, presidents typically have only the slightest influence over the American economy.

It's that last line..."presidents typically have only the slightest influence over the American economy"... I've repeated and repeated that same line over and over, over the years, yet the typical voters ignore the President's lack of control over the economy.

No way Clinton or W. Bush would have been re-elected if they experienced the current economy during their re-election bid. Obama is a bit more personable and an incrediable orator, he still has a chance.

Yet, this election is basically Romney's election to win. No President has been re-elected with such high unemployment rate since FDR.  Obama could be the first. Voters understand that it was the Republican policies of deregulation that crashed the banking system and perpetuated the economic turn down. They might give Obama a second chance.

Additionally, Romney is still having difficultly connecting with the voter, especially the non-white, women and lower-class voters.

Would FORBES lie?

Who Is The Smallest Government Spender Since Eisenhower? Would You Believe It's Barack Obama?
If this was in any other publication, I would have dismissed it. But it's Forbes, the bastions of Republican ownership and readership.