Collect Experiences. Not Things. :')

October 31, 2012

Electoral Vote Update


With six days left to the election, clearly Obama has the electoral vote lead. Obama 294 vs. Romney 244. ( 270 to win). I still believe Obama will win Colorado, and the final tally will be Obama 303 vs. Romney 235.

Sequence to Romney's demise:

1) Over summer, Obama campaign introduced Romney as a greedy, corporate elite that was only interested in the wealthy and corporations.

2) 47% recording leaks. ROMNEY'S TRUE DEMISE.  Romney says in his own word that he is only interested in the wealthy 53% of American. 47% are moochers. Whoever recorded that tape should get credit for Obama's re-election.

3) Late summer, housing market bottom declared, unemployment drops below 8%, stock market continues to increase, consumer confidence improves.

4) Romney killed Obama on the first debate (I'm still not convinced Obama's team didn't plan it that way to make Obama look like the come back kid), then Obama comes back strong during the last two debates, stanching and reversing Romney's rise in the polls.

October 28, 2012

Colin Powell’s former chief of staff



Colin Powell's former chief of staff: "My party is full of racists'.  

I totally agree. If you watched the GOP convention it was all whites except for a few non-white female speakers, which the GOP was trying to highlight. GOP has been trying to recruit non-white female candidates with the promise their trajectory in the Republican, vs. the Democratic party, will be quicker. There could be some truth to that...

Supporting this a poll that indicates racism since 2008 has increased.

ANTI-BLACK PREJUDICE INCREASED SINCE 2008, POLL FINDS A new Associated Press poll finds that racial prejudice increased since the election of President Obama in 2008, with 51 percent of Americans expressing “explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey.” 56 percent displayed implicit anti-black sentiments, “up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.” The survey found that Obama could suffer a net loss of 2 percentage points in the popular vote “due to anti-black attitudes.”

Romney's constituency: white, male, non-college educated, religious, married, willing to work hard, old, conservatives, followers.   

Obama's constituency: female, non-white, college-educated, single, more to life than working, young, progressive, thinkers, individuals.  

The country seems to be divided more now than in the '70's, but not as divided as the civil war! 

October 27, 2012

Electoral College

NY Times 538 Blog projects Obama to receive 295 electoral votes.  He needs 270 to win.  Romney would have to steal 29 electoral votes to win, which would be extremely difficult this close to election day.

Huffington Post claims swing states of CO, FL, VA and NH are to closes to project. But even without these states, Obama should receive 277 electoral votes, more than enough to win.

My guess: Obama wins CO, NH, and VA, and Romney wins FL.  

The final electoral college Obama 303 vs. Romney 234.   

Who Gets Credit for the Recovery?

Whoever is elected will receive credit for the recovery. The recovery is underway....

FACT #1: The unemployment rate has fallen below 8 percent, much sooner than forecasters were predicting a few months ago.

FACT #2: Consumer confidence has reached a post-recession high.

FACT #3: The housing bust has bottomed and housing starts are rising.

 More   Here


October 26, 2012

2012 Electoral Map w/ No Toss Ups

Generally approaching election day, undecided voters side with the challenger, but this doesn't seem to be occurring. Undecided voters seem to be siding with Obama.

 Romney's rise in the polls and subsequent wave seems to have subsided, since Obama's strong performance in the second and third debate. A little over a week left, unless the polls aren't capturing something (which I doubt), Obama should be elected to a seconded term.

 Since the first debate, Obama's team has portrayed Romney as someone who: 1) only cares about the wealthy, 2) promoting a sketchy economic plan (similar to W. Bush's plan decrease taxes, increase the deficit) and 3) wants to limit the rights of women. The issues seem to be sticking.

Hello

October 25, 2012

2012 Electoral Map w/ No Toss Ups


Really seems like the Electoral Map is stuck. Romney would have to turn Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin in order to win, but it doesn't look like it's gonna happen.  It's seems like Romney's position to let Detroit crumple in 2008 has come back to haunt him. The voters in Wisconsin and Ohio, largely dependent on the car industry for jobs, have not forgotten as the Former Governor of Michigan reminds Romney (video below).

Unless there is some October surprise that shifts Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin into Romney's column, it appears like Obama will have an additional four years.

October 20, 2012

Chris's & Richard's Wedding


Chris and Richard


Drunks from the night prior.  If Chris was 5 minutes slower getting to the liquor store, great pain could have been stymied. Overall, it makes a great story and it was lot of fun!

October 17, 2012

After First Debate, Before Second Debate

Result of Obama's sleepy performance during first debate. During the second debate, last night, his performance was much more feisty.  Polls are sure to rise for Obama, follow by a wave.  If he performs equally as well at the third debate, the wave should last until the election.  Romney failed big time and doubled down on it by saying Obama never said "terrorist attacks" in the Rose Garden after Benghazi, Libya attacks.

October 13, 2012

GRIM

Things are looking GRIM for Obama as of Oct 12th. Romney's bump started to subside over the past two days. Obama's last chance in the upcoming two debates.

October 10, 2012

One-in-Five Adults Have No Religious Affiliation

“Nones” on the Rise

The number of Americans who do not identify with any religion continues to grow at a rapid pace. One-fifth of the U.S. public – and a third of adults under 30 – are religiously unaffiliated today, the highest percentages ever in Pew Research Center polling.
In the last five years alone, the unaffiliated have increased from just over 15% to just under 20% of all U.S. adults. Their ranks now include more than 13 million self-described atheists and agnostics (nearly 6% of the U.S. public), as well as nearly 33 million people who say they have no particular religious affiliation (14%).3
These numbers are quite staggering!  In just 5 years!! 

If this rate continues, in 15 years approximately 50% of U.S. public will not be affiliated with any religion. Personally, the advent of the internet and religion's view on gay rights has influenced the public's take on religion.

Why believe in a religion that promotes hate?

October 07, 2012

Rutgers Game











President Romney?

Why a President Romney would have Obama to thank for an economic recovery 

"Romney is widely considered to have won Wednesday night’s presidential debate by attacking Obama’s economic record and promising, if elected, to restore job growth and middle-class incomes. The irony is that, if Romney wins the election and the economy rebounds on his watch, much of the recovery will be due to efforts undertaken during the Obama administration.

Every president faces two painful, immutable truths about the economy: First, he has far less influence over it than voters think. Second, even when his actions make a difference, it is often not felt until after he’s left office."

People seem to underestimate the depth of the current "financial crisis" and the time it takes to recover from From a "financial crisis".  A recessions caused by a "financial crisis" failure of the financial system take longer to recover from. The best news it that we are not in a depression.

First graph show percent unemployment for all recent recessions.  The current one if far deeper and longer than any the other recessions.


Many countries have experienced recessions caused by "financial crisis". Recovery takes a long time.  Relative to other countries that experienced "financial crisis", the U.S. is currently fairing fairly well.