Fairly Sure The Democrats Loose House Seats in the Fall Elections

Since 1946, presidents with job approval ratings below 50% at the time of midterm elections have seen their parties lose an average of 36 U.S. House seats, compared with an average loss of 14 seats for presidents with approval ratings above 50%. – Gallup.

With Obama's current approval rating at 45 and the U.S.'s already sluggish economy slowing, it doesn't look good. The GOP requires an increase of 40 seats to take the majority in the House. Reagan and Clinton both had approval rating below 50 entering during their first-term upon entering into the mid-term elections. They lost 28 and 53 seats, respectively. Without a doubt, Democrats will loose seats in the House this mid-term election. But how many?

But even with that said, we all know Obama won't stand by idling. Come mid-October he's start his politicking, blaming the entire mortgage market meltdown and financial crisis on the Bush Administration. And bets? His last minute politicking during the Health Care Reform was instrumental in tipping the votes.

As for the Senate, it appears the Democrats will hold on to the upper house, but only by a slim margin of two or three (counting Lieberman and Sanders), unless of course something drastic occurs.

Looking even further in the the future, Obama's own fate will almost solely be decided by the state of the economy in two years leading up to 2012.