The Economic Cycle - It's Fairly Predictable

• approaching full employment (4.7% January 2018) 
• wages raise
• tighter job market (if immigration is limited, even tighter job market)
• economy begins to overheat
• inflation rises over target rates 
• higher interest costs 
• stronger dollar 
• decrease exports (plus abandoned TPP and NAFTA)
• cost of foreign goods increase
• more inflation
• tax cuts and increased spending (plus positionally infrastructure stimulus) - never appropriate for a strong economy
• more inflation and overheating of the economy 
• fed increases interest rates sharply 
• economy heads into a recession 

The hard part is the timing of this cycle, plus anticipating and including any unforeseeable exogenous factors.