Trump's second impeachment trial: Capital Security Camera

Senate Impeachment Trial: January 6 - Trump's Denial, Deflection, Disinformation

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Video shows the attack by Trump supporters on the U.S. Capital including the death of insurgent Ashli E. Babbitt. 

Biden Is Stepping Into a Dream Economic Scenario

First, there is nothing fundamentally “broken” in the economy that needs to heal. And unlike the last two cycles, there was no obvious financial bubble driving excessive activity in any one economic sector when the pandemic hit. There is no excessive investment that needs to be unwound and the financial sector has escaped largely unharmed.

Second, the indiscriminate nature of the shutdowns this past spring provides the economy with a solid base from which to grow. The economy collapsed in the spring because in the effort to get ahead of the virus, we shut down about a third of the economy on an annualized basis. That created a lot of opportunity to rebound when the unnecessary causalities of the shutdown came back online and began to grow around the virus. That process will continue.

Third, household balance sheets were not crushed like they were in the last recession. Instead, the opposite occurred. Reduced spending, fiscal stimulus, rising home prices and a buoyant equity market have all helped push household net wealth past its pre-pandemic peak.

Fourth, the demographics are incredibly supportive of growth. During the last recovery, the economy was still adapting to the Baby Boomers aging out of the workforce with a much smaller cohort of Generation X’ers behind them. The larger Millennial generation was just entering college at the time. Now, the Millennials are entering their prime homebuyer years in force and will be moving into their peak earning years. The resulting strength in housing is fueling higher home prices and durable goods spending, and we are just at the beginning of the trend. Housing activity should hold strong for the next four years.

Fifth, household savings have grown by more than a $1 trillion, providing the fuel for a hot economy on the other side of the pandemic. Sooner or later, that money is going to come out of savings and into the economy and I expect it to flow into the sectors like leisure and hospitality where there is considerable pent up demand.

Sixth, and most importantly, vaccine is coming. Pfizer Inc. announced its Covid-19 vaccine is 90% effective. Many other vaccines are in development using the same strategy as Pfizer. To be sure, it will take some time for vaccines to be widely available but once they are the sectors of the economy most encumbered by the virus (the same as those for which consumers have pent-up demand) will be lit on fire. Moreover, schools and day cares can reopen allowing parents to return to the workforce.

Biden Vs. Trump GDP Contribution

Biden carried only 477 of the 3,141 counties in the United States, but those counties account for 70 percent gross domestic product (GDP). according to new figures from the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. 

The 2,497 counties that voted for President Trump account for just 29 percent of the country's economic output.

"The problem—as we have witnessed over the past decade and are likely to continue seeing—is not only that Democrats and Republicans disagree on issues of culture, identity, and power, but that they represent radically different swaths of the economy. Democrats represent voters who overwhelmingly reside in the nation’s diverse economic centers, and thus tend to prioritize housing affordability, an improved social safety net, transportation infrastructure, and racial justice. Jobs in blue America also disproportionately rely on national R&D investment, technology leadership, and services exports.

By contrast, Republicans represent an economic base situated in the nation’s struggling small towns and rural areas. Prosperity there remains out of reach for many, and the party sees no reason to consider the priorities and needs of the nation’s metropolitan centers. That is not a scenario for economic consensus or achievement.

At the same time, the results from last week’s election likely underscore fundamental problems of economic alienation and estrangement. Specifically, Trump’s anti-establishment appeal suggests that a sizable portion of the country continues to feel little connection to the nation’s core economic enterprises, and chose to channel that animosity into a candidate who promised not to build up all parts of the country, but rather to vilify groups who didn’t resemble his base."

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2016 - Trump wins by "LANDSLIDE”

306 Trump vs. 232 Clinton

State       Vote Difference      % Difference 

PA                          44k                                    0.7%

WI                          22k                                    0.8%

MI                          11k                                    0.2%

2020 - Trump losses due to "VOTER FRAUD” 

306 Biden vs. 232 Trump 

State       Vote Difference      % Difference 

PA                         80k                                    1.2%

WI                         20k                                     0.6%

MI                        154k                                    2.8%

Top Websites for News

While the older generation consume their new through the TV, younger generations are getting it over the internet. #1 Google; #2 CNN; and #3 Yahoo!

It's the number of hits on one day: October 20, 2020 

 

US Presidential Election 2020

I incorrectly guessed Florida (29) and North Carolina (15) electoral votes would have gone to Biden. Instead the 44 vote went to Trump. The 306 Biden and 232 Trump is the exact number of electoral votes in Trumps "landslide" victory in 2016 - Trump (306) and Clinton (232).  

Biden says Americans have "given us a mandate for action." He adds, "They made it clear they want the country to come together."

Final Count - November 8, 2020

My Election Prediction - Competed 9:30AM on 11/3/20