Don't Forget To Vote

And when you vote remember:

1) all the American Soldiers and innocent Iraqis that have died for no reason.

2) all the people unemployed and those losing their homes, as well as the value of your 401k and home.

3) and Sarah Palin could be negotiating arms deals with Iran.

NC Neighbors -- VOTE '08

Vote to Cancel out Your Neighbor!!!

Tina Fey Returns....

NBC’s parent company, General Electric, should send Senator John McCain flowers and a microwave oven. Tina Fey probably doesn’t do a credible Mitt Romney, but her impersonation of Gov. Sarah Palin is so deliciously dead-on that it has helped “Saturday Night Live” score its highest ratings in years.

Often her funniest stuff is when she quotes the Alaskan Governor verbatim.

Poor Sarah Palin. And she's made it clear to the press that she's looking forward to 2012. Where is Dan Quayle these days? Maybe the two of them can team up and run together in 2012.

Happy Halloween

Even You Can Look Like This....

IF YOU BUY THE UNDERWEAR!!!

WFTV Interviews Joe Biden 10/23/08

I've never really been impressed by Biden. I've always found him to be a little goofy. But this interview is classic. The Anchor from WFTV is a rightwing wingnut. Her questions are off the wall. Biden handle's himself beautifully.

Biden: Are you joking? Is this a joke? Or is that a real question?

Biden: I don't know who is writing your question...

Biden: I don't know anyone who thinks that except the far right wing of the republican party.

Interesting...and that's all I'm going to say.

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The Vet Who Did Not Vet

Much will be written why McCain lost. My top five reasons:

1) Sarah Palin
2) Erratic behavior during the financial crisis ("economy is fundamentally sound"; suspend campaign, but still make appearances; refuse to attend the debate because of the economic crisis, then show up; propose a committee to study the crisis, etc.)
3) Appearing angry during the presidential debates.
4) Voted 90% of the time with George W. Bush.
5) Kept referring to himself a Maverick, even though nobody else did.

My Proposed Economic Policies

The U.S. Economy, and World Economy right behind it, is entering, or has possibly already entered, a prolonged, and possibly deep, recession.

1) Equity Ownership: Instead of Fannie, Freddie, and banks holding the mortgage foreclosing on homes, they should first try to negotiate a lower mortgage that's cashflowable by the borrower in exchange for an equity portion in the house. In the short run, the banks will have to write-off the portion of the mortgage equivalent to the equity portion and accept a lower income stream, but such a policy would lower the number of houses on the market and help buoy the real estate market. In the long run, real estate values will increase, without a doubt, and at which time the borrower would required to purchase back the bank's ownership portion. The bank should recover a healthy profit.

2) Additional Capital Infusion: Based on the graph below, Treasury will need take a greater equity stake in banks. Essentially, banks will be nationalized, but this time they need to take voting interest along with their preferred share ownership. That was a huge mistake in the previous equity infusion. Such a vote provides provides the government leverage over management, management's salary and to get the banks to start lending instead of hoarding cash.

3) Jobs Program: The government needs to start hiring laid off workers to teach, rebuild the infrastructure, law enforcement, etc. This needs to be done sooner than later.

How long and how deep the recession will be depends on two things: (1) how quickly financial institutions will start lending again, and (2) how quickly the consumer will start spending again.

If the financial institutions continue to limit lending, economic growth will be stymied, job lost, and consumers will stop spending, which will cause more job lost....you take it from there.

And as I've said before, I believe the core blame for this crisis falls on the shoulders of the government (Bush Administration, Federal Reserve, Congress, S.E.C., etc.) and their lack of regulation and oversight of the mortgage origination, credit derivative, and hedge funds during the last eight years.

Grim News On The Economy

Prof. Roubini speaks about the economy, he's the NYU professor now famous for predicting in 2006 of the current financial melt down.

"It’s like we’re walking blind in a minefield," said Prof Roubini. "Every situation has become risky and no one can trust each other. The banks are too big to be allowed to fail, but they’re also too big to save."

"We’re now paying the price for the biggest asset and credit bubble in history," Prof Roubini said, advising investors to stay clear of risky assets and keep money in cash. "The bail-outs have not worked because the markets are no longer rallying, and the policy-makers have run out of options."

He seems to be right. The bailout isn't working. It doesn't seem like it was enough. Even the policy makers seem like they are losing control .

It sure seems like the Government is going to infuse another huge chunk of capital into the bank and financial institutions again. Soon the banks will be completely nationalized.

Wanton Soup Container Recall

You know you've been eating a lot of wanton soup, when the lady asks for the containers back. I typically eat about three quarts of wanton soup a week. I had about 50 empty plastic quart containers at home. I gave them all back.

Landslide?

The media is trying to string out this election to achieve viewership and sell adverts, but it's over. Obama will not only win, but if the polls are correct, he will win by what is considered a electoral vote landslide. Most follower of the electoral college have Obama at 375 (blue states) to McCain at 163 (red states plus the two toss up states of MT and ND). It only takes 270 to win. 370 electoral votes is considered a landslide.

Obama will have 212 more electoral votes than McCain. Compare that to 2004 when Bush had only 34 more electoral votes than Kerry, and to 2000 when Bush had only 4 more electoral votes than Gore. The country seems desperate for change.

This Is So Sad

Barack leaving Hawaii. "He did not say how Mrs. Dunham (his grandmother, who raised him from the age of 10 to the time he left to college) was feeling and campaign aides did not disclose her condition, but he believes this could be his last time seeing her."

Risk Management Quant (PHD), Credit & Lending

Job Description : Top Tier NYC Bank is looking for an experienced Credit Risk Quant to research, develop and refine risk methodologies, policies and procedures for its large and diverse corporate credit portfolio. This is a quantitative research role with emphasis on estimating and calculating default probabilities, loan loss reserves and lending limits on the portfolio and loan levels. Other high visibility projects will include risk adjusted cost of capital analyses, portfolio [concentration/segmentation] strategies and economic risk studies. Applicants should be well familiar with Credit Risk methodologies and Commercial Lending. They need to have a Quantitative PhD degree [in Econometrics ,Finance, Statistics, engineering or one of the hard sciences] plus hands on experience performing credit related statistical analysis (linear and non-linear) and Risk modeling. Strong computer skills and superior verbal and written communication skills are a must. Very attractive compensation and benefits package.

Every couple of weeks, I have "that" thought: why film? Why not just be normal and get a real job like everybody else. It would be so much easier!

Double Standard?

I think yes. Ever since the primaries, I'm personally of the opinion that sexism is a bigger problem in American than racism. How much bigger I don't know? But I've made it a personal goal to become more aware of sexism and hopefully over time define some stronger rational as to why it's a bigger issue.

Is it Possible to "Dream" about Odors?

I'm been "dreaming" about odors (i.e. rancid water, soy sauce, musk cologne, cleaning fluid, etc ) in my sleep. Is this possible? I never wear cologne, but I sometimes smell it when I'm sleeping, then I wake up and it gone. The other night, I smelt soy sauce in my dream. When I woke up, I looked around, but there was no soy sauce. Weird.

WASSUS - Times Have Changed

The Original Wassus

Wassus 2008

Shooting Spree Kills Two and Wounds Four in Newark

Ugh.... I thought this stuff stopped!

"Two people were killed and four were wounded, at least one of them critically, in a rash of drive-by shootings in Newark on Friday afternoon that lasted just under an hour, the police said. At least three of the attacks were near schools."

"Newark, the state’s largest city, has been rocked by gang violence and a series of murders in recent years, including a shooting in a schoolyard last year that claimed the lives of three college students."

"Eighty-three people were murdered in Newark in 2007, compared with 52 so far this year."

Opie, Richie and Ron 4 Obama!

I Wasn't Going to Buy It...

I kept saying I wasn't going to buy it. Nope, NEVER, not going to buy it ... Lil Wayne's "The Carter III". So, I brought it on Friday night and haven't stopped listening to it.

I also told myself, I was never going join one of those social networks. Well, yesterday, I joined Facebook.

I guess, it's okay to say NEVER, then, because it doesn't really mean anything, does it?

Very Impressive

He seems to be right on. He takes a very level-headed, thoughtful approach to this election. This is a welcome turn from the last election when Bush/Rove/Cheney sought to instill fear in people to get their vote. Remember the "Red, Orange, Yellow" alerts. Wouldn't it be nice to live in a country were the Administration doesn't try to instill fear into it's people on a daily basis?

Powell's reasons for endorsing Obama:

1) Concerned by McCain's response to the economic crisis.
2) McCain's selection of Palin as a running mate. "She is not ready to be President"
3) McCain's negative campaign; invoking Ayers to instill fear.
4) Difficulty with two more conservative Supreme Court appointments.
5) Doesn't condone the extreme conservative arm his party's divisive use of religion.

Incredible

About 100,000 people turned out Saturday for an appearance by Senator Barack Obama in St. Louis. It almost seems like there is something wrong. Why would all these people show up to see a politician speak?

Warren E. Buffett Says....

Buy American. I Am.

It seems like most investors agree what Buffett says in the linked article, except most are also a lot more greedy than Buffett. They want to make the few extra dollars by jumping back into the stock market at it's true bottom. My guess, if the credit markets start working again in the next month or so, third quarter earning continue to come in as expected and Obama is elected President, the Dow will bottom out somewhere around 7800, then rebound slightly and hover around the 9000 to 10,000 mark for a few years, before heading north.

If the credit markets don't start working, then big trouble, the country will need Obama's steady hand to lead us through. If such scenario plays out a 7800 bottom would only be a dream.

Evolution

Anger Mismanagement!

I'm extremely pleased that all the polls indicate that Obama will win, because we need to put an end to the Iraq War/Occupation and give Iraq back to the Iraqis.

But with that said, I'm also fearful that Obama will jack up government spending for excessive social programs. I have a feeling that I'm not going to be happy with his fiscal spending, than again, I guess it's a small price to pay, in return for not having a Bush third term with an erratic, self-proclaimed Maverick, old McAngry at the helm. Nothing's perfect is it!

Choice?

Looking for a larger shovel in which to bury the McCain/Palin ticket? Here ya go.

Double Breasted Chicken Burger!!

My friend, who is now a Professor of Economics in Botswana, sent me this. I'm really not sure if it's sexist or not, but nonetheless it's humorous for an advert. You'll probably need to watch it twice.



Nando's is a fast-food restaurant chain originating from South Africa with a Portuguese-theme. Nando's specializes in chicken dishes with either lemon and herb.

Internet use 'good for the brain'

"For middle-aged and older people at least, using the internet helps boost brain power, research suggests."

I'm middle-aged. They must mean me!!

Just trying justify all the hours I spend jumping around on internet and make myself feel better!!! Ugh.

Palin As President

Check out the website . Be sure to click around. My favorite are the degrees hanging on the wall.

John Cleese on Sarah Palin

"Monty Python could have written this."

Finally a News Anchor Using the "L" Word!!

Watching Palin, I get that Bush feeling all over again. She has a very difficult time admitting the truth. I don't get it. Why does she feel if she lies, people will thinks its the truth? Strange indeed.

We had 8 years of lies about WMD, Mission Accomplished, Economy is Strong, etc. Doesn't Bush and Palin understand no one believes them. Just by saying what is not true, doesn't make it true.

Even her own state's newspaper, Anchorage Daily News , calls her out.

Sarah Palin's reaction to the Legislature's Troopergate report is an embarrassment to Alaskans and the nation.

She claims the report "vindicates" her. She said that the investigation found "no unlawful or unethical activity on my part."

Her response is either astoundingly ignorant or downright Orwellian.

Page 8, Finding Number One of the report says: "I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act."

In plain English, she did something "unlawful." She broke the state ethics law.

Perhaps Gov. Palin has been too busy to actually read the Troopergate report. Perhaps she is relying on briefings from McCain campaign spinmeisters.

That's the charitable interpretation.

Homo Happy!

Mccain Calls Retreat!

McCain seems to have taken back "himself". No more Karl Rove, Stephen Smith, Tucker Bounds, and their cronies. If McCain campaigned as "himself", like in this clip, he might have won this election.

In the final days of this election, the country will thank you for putting the country and it problems first before his personal political ambitions, unlike Hillary did in the primaries. Even though it's highly probable that McCain will lose, he realizes by trashing Obama, on a character and personal level, has no long run benefits.

We're 25 Days Away

It seems like Obama/Biden will win this thing.

The Electoral Vote websites report:

Obama 348 vs. McCain 190 FiveThirtyEight:
Obama 343 vs. McCain 195 Electoral-Vote:
Obama 353 vs. McCain 185 Politico:
Obama 353 vs. McCain 185 RealClearPolitics

A candidate needs 270 EV to win.

Therefore, unless Obama is caught in bed with woman or a man before November 4th - and the woman will have to be dead - is appears, according to the polls, he's be the next President.

Two reasons why the polls may be off:
1) The polls only include voters with landlines, and approximately 20% of voter between the age of 19 and 29 don't have landlines, only cell phones. The majority will probably vote for Obama, since he seems to have the youth vote.

2) An the other hand, some white voters will not admit to a pollster that they are unwilling to vote for a black candidate. McCain will clearly benefit from these voters.

The race isn't over until it's over.

Top GOP Strategist, who ran Reagan's campaign says..."It's over"

Nevertheless, McCain seems to be focused on inciting anger amongst the hard core Republican base by talking about Ayers, but it's not helping him in the polls. He is starting to alienate the rest of the population by doing so.

How Cheap Are Stocks?

"On Friday, after lurching back and forth, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closed at 899. That meant the five-year p-e ratio was just below 12. (The corporate earnings data isn’t all available yet, so this is an estimate.) It was last that low in late 1985. Over the past 100 years, the average p-e has been about 15.5.

If you use a 10-year p-e instead, stocks look somewhat more expensive — the ratio is 14, the lowest since 1988 but only a little lower than the 100-year average.

There are two things to keep in mind, in the event that you consider these ratios to be a sign that now is the time to buy. First, the p-e ratio typically falls well below its long-run average during a bust. It fell to about 6 in both the 1930s and early 1980s.

Second, remember that there are two components to the p-e ratio: the ‘p’ and the ‘e.’ Based on the kind of recession we may now be entering, it’s entirely reasonable to think that corporate earnings will fall, maybe significantly. That would mean that stocks would also have to fall just to keep the p-e ratio in its current place."

It appears we are nearing the bottom in the stock market...next the recession... lack of lending = lack of economic expansion = loss of jobs = cuts in consumer spending, etc. The real estate market is still estimated to continue falling, but at a slower rate until early 2009. The recession will probably be something like the one in the early 1980's about 18 to 24 months.

Start stocking up on spaghetti and jarred sauce. No new clothes for a while. And absolutely no new automobiles so make sure you change the oil.

Dow has declined 35% since this date last year

And its going to get worse. This is how I see it First, there was the housing/mortgage crisis due to bad lending practices and poor regulation. But when you really look at the housing market closely, it really isn't that bad, except in CA, FL, AZ and NV. Then, there was/is the derivative/credit swap that has taken down the likes of Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, and required a bailout for AIG. The derivative/credit swap crisis basically still exists and is facilitating the credit crisis, where banks are afraid to lend to each other, shutting down credit markets, which, in turn, is finding it's way to Wall Street and international equity markets as a result of a projected world recession due to lower projected corporate incomes. Ultimately, the credit crisis will hinder local business from borrowing and hiring new employees and making investments, which in turn will cause a slow down on Main Street. Additionally, falling values of 401k and housing values will cause consumers to limit their spending multiplying the slow down on Main Street. Things don't look good, but in two years things will be fine again. The worst will be behind us.

Today's Polls: Obama Now a 9:1 Favorite

"John McCain is in deep trouble. In spite of some incremental gains that McCain has made in some of the national tracking polls, the set of state polling that follows is so strong for Obama that he continues to hit record marks in all three of our projection metrics. We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time, with an average of 346.8 electoral votes, and a 5.4-point margin in the national popular vote."

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Donna Brazile Is Not Going To The Back Of The Bus

So much of this election has to do with race, but nobody wants to say it. It's refreshing to hear Donna Brazile, someone representing MSM, speaking on the subject.

Yes, I Think We Can, I Think We Can, I Think We Can

McCain call Obama "that one"

Yup, a Shampoo Ad

Pantene to be exact. Can you see the bottles of hair products in the lower right hand corner? Okay maybe not, you might have to blow it up a bit. Via feministing . After the primaries, I've made it a personal goal to learn more about sexism and feminism.

He's So In Love

They are John and Jacqueline Version 2.0 --- and they even have the two beautiful kids to round out the family.

What a contrast to the Old Coot and his dentures and that OxyCotin poppin', Botoxed, Budwiser Heiress Mess he's married to.

Israelis For Obama

The entire world seems like they want Obama for President, except the "rednecks" and "bigots" in middle and southern America.

That Was Then, This Is Now

When I watched the VP debates, I couldn't help but reflect on that Sarah Palin's views are exactly Reagan's mantra twenty-five years ago - lower taxes, smaller government, decreased regulation, defeat "evil", antiabortion, etc.

And twenty-five years ago, I - more or less - believed in the same mantra. Reagan was an inspiration for the times. I even volunteered for Reagan's second term re-election bid. That was probably the last time I was really excited about a Presidential election.

In the twenty-five years since, I've come out, traveled the world, ingratiated myself into minority and international communities, and attended an Ivy League institution where I completed my graduate studies. I've made a conscience effort to take myself out of my comfort zone and learn about the world, different cultures and different beliefs.

And while I still posses some of Reagan's conservative fiscally views, I don't posses ANY of his conservative social beliefs anymore.

But what destroyed my belief in the conservative mantra the most is George W. Bush. He declared war on an innocent country for no tangible reason. He views the people of Iraq as "evil". They are not. They are just people, human beings. Bush has also completely mismanaged regulation of the financial industry. And because of the war and the huge financial bailout, the country's debt has sky rocketed. Now a days, I'd rather vote for anything that isn't conservative.

And while I don't support many of Obama's proposed social programs, I do support his focus on the middle-class - as opposed to the super rich and corporations like Reagan and Bush - and I most definitely support Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq, as well as his desire to mend international relations.

Obama's liberal leaning policies are far from perfect, but they're much better than the current direction the country is headed under the Bush-McCain policies. It's seems like it's time for the pendulum to swing in the other direction.

Obama Takes A Commanding Lead in Polls

The McCain campaign to the press it's going to try to turn the focus away from the economy, and attack Obama's character starting Tuesday. To tell the press this before hand seemed like a huge mistake. The Obama campaign has already countered the attack, say just what the McCain campaign is go to do. Here's the new Obama ad:



The McCain campaign seems to be in a bind. If they do attack Obama's character, they will be doing exactly what Obama's campaign said they will do. I'll guess, we'all will have to wait until Tuesday.

Obama vs. The McCain: The Debate