FOUR MORE YEARS!!

Electoral College

Odds of Obama winning are now 4-5 or 85.1%. As Election Day comes near there is less of a chance the Romney Camp can more the polls. The only way Romney can win is if ALL the polls are skewed. If you don't believe in statistics and science, and believe in God then Romney still has a chance.

Electoral Vote Update

With six days left to the election, clearly Obama has the electoral vote lead. Obama 294 vs. Romney 244. ( 270 to win). I still believe Obama will win Colorado, and the final tally will be Obama 303 vs. Romney 235.

Sequence to Romney's demise:

1) Over summer, Obama campaign introduced Romney as a greedy, corporate elite that was only interested in the wealthy and corporations.

2) 47% recording leaks. ROMNEY'S TRUE DEMISE.  Romney says in his own word that he is only interested in the wealthy 53% of American. 47% are moochers. Whoever recorded that tape should get credit for Obama's re-election.

3) Late summer, housing market bottom declared, unemployment drops below 8%, stock market continues to increase, consumer confidence improves.

4) Romney killed Obama on the first debate (I'm still not convinced Obama's team didn't plan it that way to make Obama look like the come back kid), then Obama comes back strong during the last two debates, stanching and reversing Romney's rise in the polls.

Colin Powell’s former chief of staff

Colin Powell's former chief of staff: "My party is full of racists'.  

I totally agree. If you watched the GOP convention it was all whites except for a few non-white female speakers, which the GOP was trying to highlight. GOP has been trying to recruit non-white female candidates with the promise their trajectory in the Republican, vs. the Democratic party, will be quicker. There could be some truth to that...

Supporting this a poll that indicates racism since 2008 has increased.

ANTI-BLACK PREJUDICE INCREASED SINCE 2008, POLL FINDS | A new Associated Press poll finds that racial prejudice increased since the election of President Obama in 2008, with 51 percent of Americans expressing “explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey.” 56 percent displayed implicit anti-black sentiments, “up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.” The survey found that Obama could suffer a net loss of 2 percentage points in the popular vote “due to anti-black attitudes.”

Romney's constituency: white, male, non-college educated, religious, married, willing to work hard, old, conservatives, followers.   

Obama's constituency: female, non-white, college-educated, single, more to life than working, young, progressive, thinkers, individuals.  

The country seems to be divided more now than in the '70's, but not as divided as the civil war! 

Electoral College

NY Times 538 Blog projects Obama to receive 295 electoral votes.  He needs 270 to win.  Romney would have to steal 29 electoral votes to win, which would be extremely difficult this close to election day.

Huffington Post claims swing states of CO, FL, VA and NH are to closes to project. But even without these states, Obama should receive 277 electoral votes, more than enough to win.

My guess: Obama wins CO, NH, and VA, and Romney wins FL.  

The final electoral college Obama 303 vs. Romney 234.   

Who Gets Credit for the Recovery?

Whoever is elected will receive credit for the recovery. The recovery is underway....

FACT #1: The unemployment rate has fallen below 8 percent, much sooner than forecasters were predicting a few months ago.

FACT #2: Consumer confidence has reached a post-recession high.

FACT #3: The housing bust has bottomed and housing starts are rising.

 More   Here

2012 Electoral Map w/ No Toss Ups

Generally approaching election day, undecided voters side with the challenger, but this doesn't seem to be occurring. Undecided voters seem to be siding with Obama.

 Romney's rise in the polls and subsequent wave seems to have subsided, since Obama's strong performance in the second and third debate. A little over a week left, unless the polls aren't capturing something (which I doubt), Obama should be elected to a seconded term.

 Since the first debate, Obama's team has portrayed Romney as someone who: 1) only cares about the wealthy, 2) promoting a sketchy economic plan (similar to W. Bush's plan decrease taxes, increase the deficit) and 3) wants to limit the rights of women. The issues seem to be sticking.

2012 Electoral Map w/ No Toss Ups

Really seems like the Electoral Map is stuck. Romney would have to turn Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin in order to win, but it doesn't look like it's gonna happen.  It's seems like Romney's position to let Detroit crumple in 2008 has come back to haunt him. The voters in Wisconsin and Ohio, largely dependent on the car industry for jobs, have not forgotten as the Former Governor of Michigan reminds Romney (video below).

Unless there is some October surprise that shifts Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin into Romney's column, it appears like Obama will have an additional four years.

After First Debate, Before Second Debate

Result of Obama's sleepy performance during first debate. During the second debate, last night, his performance was much more feisty.  Polls are sure to rise for Obama, follow by a wave.  If he performs equally as well at the third debate, the wave should last until the election.  Romney failed big time and doubled down on it by saying Obama never said "terrorist attacks" in the Rose Garden after Benghazi, Libya attacks.

GRIM

Things are looking GRIM for Obama as of Oct 12th. Romney's bump started to subside over the past two days. Obama's last chance in the upcoming two debates.

President Romney?

Why a President Romney would have Obama to thank for an economic recovery 

"Romney is widely considered to have won Wednesday night’s presidential debate by attacking Obama’s economic record and promising, if elected, to restore job growth and middle-class incomes. The irony is that, if Romney wins the election and the economy rebounds on his watch, much of the recovery will be due to efforts undertaken during the Obama administration.

Every president faces two painful, immutable truths about the economy: First, he has far less influence over it than voters think. Second, even when his actions make a difference, it is often not felt until after he’s left office."

People seem to underestimate the depth of the current "financial crisis" and the time it takes to recover from From a "financial crisis".  A recessions caused by a "financial crisis" failure of the financial system take longer to recover from. The best news it that we are not in a depression.

First graph show percent unemployment for all recent recessions.  The current one if far deeper and longer than any the other recessions.

Many countries have experienced recessions caused by "financial crisis". Recovery takes a long time.  Relative to other countries that experienced "financial crisis", the U.S. is currently fairing fairly well.  

"47%" Comment : End of Romney's Presidency Bid?

Presidential Debates

During the next three weeks, the debates are Romney's last chance to change voter opinions. Obama already has a core number of electoral votes, plus many major swing states in his favor, most notably Ohio, Virginia and Florida.  Even if things changed between now and election day, and Obama lost Florida, where he currently has a 65% chance of winning, all he needs is one smaller swing state like Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or Colorado to win.  And he already has at least a 65% chance or higher of winning these states. The probabilities are based on economic data and polling data. At this point, something significantly damaging would have to occur for Obama not to win in November, which is possible, but not probable.

Obama excels in national security (especially, after Bin-Laden's death), foreign relations and domestic policy. He's a bit weakness on the economy. The Obama team knows this, and knew this would be a problem from day one.  Remember during Obama's inaugural address, he set the stage of the economy and blamed it on W Bush.  Now four years later, Obama is basically portraying Romney's policies as W Bush policies II.  It seems to be working, unless during the debates Romney can come up with some new are ideas as to how his economic policies differ from Bush it will be difficult for him to win in November.

Best Speech of DNC: Bill Clinton's

Four years ago, Obama was Bill Clinton nemesis. He adeptly "stole" the Democratic Nomination from Hillary. Bill and his Democratic crones didn't see Barack as a serious threat, and felt that the nomination was rightful Hillary's. If Hillary did get the nomination, she would have been President today, no doubt about it.

Let me say, I'm no Bill Clinton Stan. When he was President, I was in grad school and wasn't really focused on politics.  It wasn't until 2003, after W. Bush lied about the WMD and declared war on Iraq, that I became infatuated with politics once again.  But even with that said, Clinton's speech at the DNC was the highlight of the convention. It surpassed even Obama's speech. And most Democrats are aware of the animosities Bill held against Barack at one time, so the current unyielding support for Barack by Bill is new founded.

Bill Clinton's support for Barack isn't entirely selfless either. If Obama wins in 2012, then in four years the economy should be peaking, which makes a great transition of the Presidency over to Hillary, similar to Reagan/Bush in 1988.

Election Fever

Definitely don't have the time to reflect on this election like I did four years ago. But I'm still closely following it. What else do I got to do? What films?

Based on the economy, this election is Romney's election to lose, and it appears he's doing a good job at it.  Most of the country seems to have make up it's mind. The populous vote seems to about 50-46 Obama/ 48-44 Romney based on various national polls.

However, the electoral college is what wins the election, not the popular vote. Currently, Obama is ahead. At this point, he only has to win one large swing state, like FL, VA, or OH and one or two smaller swing state, like NH, CO, NV, IA or WI.  Testing various scenarios, using the electoral map, indicates he has a lot more paths to winning, than Romney.

Obama got a small boost in the polls from Democratic National Convention, but in the next two months he'll receive significant downward pressure in the polls from Romney's war chest and upcoming negative advertising. Romney has a mega cashbox to spend that he's received from billionaires and super pacs.

Obama's camp will be promoting his saving of the car industry and killing of Bin Laden, prominently. Both are hot issues in swing states working Obama's favor. Similarly, he has become the champion of the middle class, coming from modest means, choosing a life of helping people vs. Romney who champions the wealthy, comes from a wealthy family, and choose a life of making cash.

Romney's camp will be focuses on policies to reduce the deficit, taxes, regulation and high unemployment rate.  On  social issues, I believe Romney's personal beliefs aren't that far from Obama, but he has to tow the party line. His parties and now his official anti-abortion and anti-same sex marriage policy positions will hurt him with women and more progressive independents.

What's also going to hurt Romney's plan to reducing taxes and regulation is that the plan brings to mind W. Bush's policies of lower taxes and deregulation.  Bush tax cuts and two wars contributed significantly to the national debt. The non-regulation of the banking sector caused the current economic turndown.  Romney's camp did not invite W. Bush and Cheney to the Republican Convention, a huge red flag. 

On the other hand, Clinton was front and center at the DNC.  Where he clearly linked the W. Bush policies to our current economic problems: "It's simple arithmetic. A country can't reduce taxes and increase spending like under W. Bush and expect the deficit to decrease. It just doesn't work that way." Clinton also highlighted economic prosperity during his term.

Nevertheless, there is still 57 days to the election and two more unemployment reports.  My guess is unemployment will decrease each report: 1) due to the Fed's upcoming QE3 announcement on September 13th causing a surge in equity markets; and 2) the turnaround in the housing market. With interest rates at historical lows and housing pricing back on the rise, the housing sector will be hiring again.

And even if the unemployment reports come in weak, perhaps not go down, but increase, there are still three debates. Clearly Obama is the better orator. Romney comes off as very awkward. Romney will want to stay focused on jobs and only jobs, but he will be forced to discuss foreign relations, military and human rights.  None of these are his strong suit.

Would FORBES lie?

Who Is The Smallest Government Spender Since Eisenhower? Would You Believe It's Barack Obama?

If this was in any other publication, I would have dismissed it. But it's Forbes, the bastions of Republican ownership and readership.

The Road We've Traveled